Tough new regulatory CO2 emission standards in the World's key car markets (China, EU, Japan and USA) have induced a significant change in the types of cars consumers will be able to buy in the future. Whether a heavily electrified vehicle or gas-sipping advanced internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, it’s clear that the mass market car of the future will not be the standard ICE cars that are available today.
Hybridisation of cars is a common approach that all large car makers globally are pursuing in order to meet the tough new CO2 emission standards. Hybrid vehicles help achieve emission savings (and fuel economy) through various design features and technologies such as Idle Elimination, Regenerative Braking and the Electric Motor.
Typically, as fuel savings increase with higher levels of hybridisation, so does the cost of the vehicles. The key issue for automotive industry is determining what types of vehicles will become the mass market during the next few decades. The answer will depend on the sorts of cars that consumers actually buy, what technical developments emerge and the regulatory conditions imposed in each territory.
Micro- and mild-hybrid cars are expected to be the mass market cars of the future. These vehicles require new battery technologies to meet with the stringent emissions limits being imposed on automakers and as the following projections show, this represents a significant new battery market in the coming decades:
- Pike Research (September 2012): 41m new start/stop cars per year by 2020.
- McKinsey (May 2012): Start/Stop battery market to be greater than US$12B/year by 2020.
- Lux Research (February 2012): Start/Stop battery market US$6.9B/year by 2017.
- Pike Research (June 2011): Start/Stop battery market US$8.9B/year by 2020.
- Johnson Controls (June 2011): 100m start/stop batteries per year by 2020 (including both new cars and the aftermarket).
Note: Traditionally the new car (OEM) market is around 20% of batteries sold in any given year and the aftermarket accounts for the remaining 80%.